Downing Street Says » Lord Mayor’s Speech

The PMOS started by giving an outline of the main points of the Prime Minister’s Guildhall speech – these being; the overall context of the speech being about the relationship with America, with Europe and an argument against isolationism and why in today’s world of foreign policy based on strong alliances, the only policy that works being Britain in alliance with Europe, in alliance with the US. The crux is what the Prime Minister says on Iraq and above all about the Middle East and the need for a wider Middle East strategy.

On Iraq the Prime Minister has said that, "we should empower the Iraqi leadership that wants to take responsibility" and sets out four ways in which he believes our strategy has to adapt to achieve that. Firstly we need, a strong political compact in Iraq led by the Iraqi government to bring all parties together with clear commitments to non-sectarian government and democracy. Secondly, that we need to build Iraqi governing capability, especially in relation to dispersing money for reconstruction and rebuilding the economy. Thirdly, we must help build the capacity of the Iraqi army by plugging any gaps in training, equipment, and command and control. The Prime Minister then goes on to say, "However, most crucial is this. Just as it is, in significant part, forces outside Iraq that are trying to create mayhem inside Iraq, so we have to have a strategy that pins them back, not only in Iraq but outside it too." This is why the Prime Minister calls this his "whole Middle East strategy", this is the basis for his whole strategy.

PMOS quoted directly from the speech; "There is a fundamental misunderstanding that this is about changing policy on Syria and Iran. First, those two countries do not at all share identical interests. But in any event that is not where we start.

On the contrary, we should start with Israel/Palestine. That is the core. We should then make progress on Lebanon. We should unite all moderate Arab and Moslem voices behind a push for peace in those countries but also in Iraq. We should be standing up for, empowering, respecting those with a moderate and modern view of the faith of Islam everywhere.

What is happening in the Middle East today is not complex. It is simple. Iran is being confronted over its nuclear weapons ambitions. Its stock market has lost a third of its value in the last year and foreign credit is increasingly hard to come by. The statements of its President – such as wiping Israel from the face of the earth – are causing alarm, even in Iran."

The Prime Minister’s speech then goes on to analyse Iran’s position in more detail, saying that the Iranians, "are using the pressure points in the region to thwart us. So they help the most extreme elements of Hamas in Palestine; Hizbollah in the Lebanon; Shia militia in Iraq."

And in a final paragraph, "It is a perfectly straightforward and clear strategy. It will only be defeated by an equally clear one: to relieve these pressure points one by one and then, from a position of strength to talk, in a way I described in July in my speech in Los Angeles: offer Iran a clear strategic choice: they help the Middle East Peace Process not hinder it; they stop supporting terrorism in Lebanon or Iraq; and they abide by, not flout, their international obligations. In that case, a new partnership is possible. Or alternatively they face the consequences of not doing so: isolation."

Asked if the final paragraph referred just to Iran, the PMOS said that yes it did, but in terms of strategic choice it is the same for Iran and Syria.

Asked if the Prime Minister had modified the message since the speech he gave in Los Angeles, the PMOS said that the meaning is precisely the same. They either do what we ask to make a new partnership possible, or face the consequences of not doing so: isolation. When asked if that was different from confrontation, as mentioned in the Los Angeles speech, the PMOS said that the idea that you first articulate what it is that Iran is up to, and you then make it clear that unless they play a more constructive role, then that is very much in the mode of confronting what they are up to and trying to change course; giving them the choice, change course or else you face isolation. Asked again if the speeches were essentially different in their message, the PMOS said that Iran faces a clear strategic choice – they help, not hinder, they stop supporting terrorism, they abide and not flout their international obligations. That is a strong list of things that they have to do.

Asked if by saying that progress needs to be made in Lebanon to put us in a position of strength in negotiations with Iran, is that an acknowledgement that we are in a position of weakness, the PMOS replied that no, it was an acknowledgement of what needed to be done to put us in the best position to deal with Syria and Iran and make them make a choice. What the Prime Minister said in Los Angeles was, "an arc of moderation", and he talks now about empowering, respecting those with a modern view of the faith of Islam everywhere. We should unite all moderate Arab and Muslim voices behind the push for peace. We’re acknowledging that we have still to do that.

Asked as Iran and Syria were already living in isolation, what does the Prime Minister think will make them change their mind, the PMOS replied, if you look at the Syrian economy, if you look at the Iranian economy, if you look at their influence in the world, it is far from where they would like to be. There is a choice; they can maintain their isolationism, with all that entails, or they can come out of it. The PMOS went on to say, as he had said this morning, that a stable Middle East, a prosperous Middle East is as much in Iran and Syria’s interest as it is in our interests. Asked in terms of consequences, if the UK would break diplomatic ties with Iran and Syria, the PMOS said that it was not a speech that focused on the what if, the Prime Minster is focussing on what he wants to achieve in a positive, but hard-headed way. This was a very hard-headed analysis of the situation. It spelt out why we need to have a whole Middle East strategy, why we have to broaden the picture, both in terms of Iraq, but in terms of the Middle East as a whole and in terms of Iran and Syria. You do not deal with the individual parts, you deal with the broad vision.

Asked if the "whole Middle East strategy", which had been called for many times before, including in Los Angeles, would be more likely now President Bush’s situation had changed, the PMOS said he would not speak for the President, nor would he act as a commentator on American affairs, he factually pointed out that we were in a period where there is a recalibration of the American view, we were in a period when the Baker-Hamilton committee are meeting people. Therefore this underlines that this is a worthwhile period to build on and evolve from the central message at the heart of the Los Angeles speech. With regard to the lapse of time – Los Angeles speech was only in August.

Asked if the Prime Minister meant that he believed that once the pressure points of the Lebanon, the Middle East and Iraq are sorted then we are in a position to confront Iran and Syria, and that we did not need the help of Iran and Syria to solve the problems in these areas, the PMOS again said that the choice is theirs, but what we should not do is wait for Iran and Syria before we do anything. We should be actively involved now in trying to resolve these matters because Israel and Palestine, in particular, but also as we’ve seen over decades in Lebanon, they are exploited by those who want to for their own ends, which are hostile to our ends. Therefore the way to address, to stop that exploitation is by resolving the matters.

Asked if "forces outside Iraq that are trying to create mayhem inside Iraq" that could be taken as a reference to Iran and Syria, the PMOS replied that the Prime Minister had acknowledged, as far back as Hampton Court in October 2005, that we believe Iran has an influence with the militias, and we are concerned about the supply of equipment to Iraqi terrorists from Iran. In terms of Syria, it is a role in terms of controlling its border and so on. But the Prime Minister is also talking about Al-Qaeda, and other extremists.

Asked if the Prime Minister has a time frame in mind during which the countries in question decided which way to jump, and had the Prime Minister discussed the speech with the White House, or the US Ambassador in the UK, the PMOS said in terms of the second point we would not detail the contact we have with the American administration, but it would be fair to say that the American administration is well across what our developing thinking on this was, and the Prime Minister made the speech in Los Angeles, and the US was well aware of our thinking at that time. The PMOS went on to say in terms of time frames, he would not be able to put an artificial time frame on it but countries would be judged by there actions. We were still in a position of waiting to see the response from Syria since Sir Nigel Sheinwald’s visit. The PMOS went on to say that he did not expect to have that response by now, these things took time, but ultimately you judge people by their actions. Asked if there was concrete action that the Prime Minister was looking for, the PMOS said as with all these things it was not one action, but a series of actions and therefore that is what we are looking for but we wait to see what happens.

Asked since the situation with President Bush had changed if the Prime Minister was expecting more reaction in the US than last time, the PMOS said that the Los Angeles speech got more notice in the US at the time than it did in the UK. The PMOS added that this was clearly a time where people are thinking of the overall strategy and therefore it was a good time to be making this speech, and the Guildhall speech was traditionally a foreign policy speech.

Asked if it was the Prime Minister’s view that you cannot have stability in Iraq without the rule of Middle East peace keepers, the PMOS said that having a broader Middle East strategy helped enormously in getting stability in Iraq as it gives you a basis on which to argue that you are not in being one handed, or dealing with only one side of the issue, but dealing with the issue as a whole and therefore dealing with Israel and Palestine is a good thing in itself. Dealing with Lebanon is a good thing in itself, dealing with Iraq is a good thing in itself, but the reality is that they’re all interlinked. All the pieces of the jigsaw are connected together.

Asked as President Bush’s ability to move on this was now limited following the election, and the Prime Minister was stepping down in the next six months, why would Iran and Syria take things seriously. The PMOS said he would not comment on US politics and in terms of the Prime Minister’s approach it has been made clear that the Middle East remains one of his objectives during his remaining time. Asked if that was clarification that the Prime Minister’s remaining period in office would be six months or less, the PMOS said absolutely not.

Asked to clarify what "the US seeks a military solution in Iran. They don’t." The PMOS said that the Prime Minister is dealing with the perception in Iran that the US is seeking a military solution. What we had never done is speak for the US in terms of its intentions.

Asked what Israel’s contribution would be the PMOS said that the Prime Minister had been clear of the need to deal with the issues, in Gaza the Israeli’s have pulled out, in the West Bank they have signalled there willingness to do so. Of course in any detailed negotiations there is a role for Israel to play.

Asked as after 9/11 there was a moment for a rethink, the PMOS said that there was clearly a moment where people were rethinking their policy, rethinking where we are. Therefore this is a time to articulate a way forward.

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» Monday, November 13, 2006

Lord Mayor’s Speech

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