Downing Street Says

Asked to explain further the Government’s previous concerns and doubts about the methodology applied in the "Lancet" article about the number of Iraqi deaths, the PMOS replied because it relied on the extrapolation technique assumed, that Iraq was uniform in terms of intensity of conflict. It wasn’t. The article also assumed that bombing was general throughout Iraq, which was not the case. The Iraqi Department of Health had issued figures that showed over a 6 month period there were about 3000 deaths, which was a long way short of the figures quoted in the "Lancet". The Iraqi DOH measured those figures by the number of people who came into hospitals throughout Iraq, and it was very difficult to rely on any such figures quoted in the "Lancet" with any certainty.

Asked if the PM was concerned about the numbers of senior Iraqi figures who have been assassinated, the PMOS answered that the Government always knew that this was going to be a difficult period as the insurgents would try and stop elections, and that they would mount a series of attacks during this period. The PMOS said that what all this was all about was to give ordinary Iraqis the vote, and therefore we had to see through this period and make sure it happened.

2 Comments »

Funny, they are happy to use extrapolation for any other purpose, aids in africa being just one example.

"The Iraqi Department of Health had issued figures that showed over a 6 month period there were about 3000 deaths" – I notice that it doesnt say WHICH 6 months
Comment by tony — 1 Nov 2004 on 7:43 pm | Link
I think it’s worth pointing out that the paper doesn’t assume Iraq was "uniform in terms of intensity of conflict" or that "bombing was general throughout Iraq". It assumes that the 33 (quasi)randomly selected clusters are representative of the whole of Iraq, which is quite different.

It’s a shame the PMOS is getting away with saying something that is so obviously incorrect.

<a href="http://image.thelancet.com/extras/04art10342web.pdf">http://image.thelancet.com/extras/04art10342web.pdf</a>
Comment by square peg — 2 Nov 2004 on 5:52 pm | Link

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» Monday, November 1, 2004

Iraq

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